that number is more impressive than it looks on paper. squash has 530+ courts across the US after 140 years of infrastructure. padel has around 250 courts, mostly clustered in florida and texas, and half of those opened in the last 18 months.
1.1 million players in 2025 with that court count means people are traveling significant distances to play, which is exactly the behavior you see in early-growth markets. spain had the same pattern in the late 90s — more players than court capacity could comfortably support, leading to massive construction waves over the next decade.
the interesting comparison isn't padel vs squash, it's padel vs pickleball at the same point in their growth curves. pickleball hit 1 million players around 2015, then exploded to 24 million in 10 years. padel has better fundamentals — real international pro tour, global infrastructure already built, doesn't compete with tennis for court conversion (needs purpose-built facilities). the ceiling is genuinely higher.
south florida is the obvious beachhead because of the spanish-speaking population and year-round outdoor weather. next wave is texas, california, arizona — places with the demographics and climate. nyc and boston will lag until indoor facilities scale up.
will be interesting to see the 2027 number. if it doubles, we're in full takeoff phase.
